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Chicken Little Was Right

Chicken Little Was Right

Long March 5B booster
Long March 5B booster

The Chinese Long March 5B booster – a sword of Damocles that has been barreling around the globe for days – finally called a halt early Sunday morning by dropping into the ocean. The final resting place, near the Maldives, is 500 miles from India’s southernmost tip. The booster returned to Earth in peace and caused neither death nor damage.

Since no one was hurt, it’s tempting to brush this off as a harmless, one-time event, unlikely to trouble us in the future. But that’s not true. Nations will continue to hurl rockets and payloads into the sky, and the pace is bound to increase as launches become cheaper. This guarantees that space junk will be a growing concern, and not just for Chicken Little and other paranoid poultry. It’s already a threat here on the ground. But it’s also a problem a few hundred miles up, where the density of dead satellites and disused rocket bodies could become a barrier to space exploration.

Worrisome threats from the skies are hardly new (ask the dinosaurs), and Nature has been mindlessly pummeling our planet with rocks for more than four billion years. But as the Long March booster makes clear, humans are now giving the cosmos real competition. We’re hurling hardware into orbit at the rate of about one hundred launches per year, and most of it will eventually come back down.

Everything sent into low-Earth orbit (the most coveted region of nearby space) is eventually slowed by friction as it highballs through the rarified air found a few hundred miles up. This drag triggers an accelerating death spiral when the hardware dips into denser atmosphere below. Eventually, it either completely burns up or, if it’s large enough, its charred leftovers will crash to the ground. The latter scenario is a familiar story; in 1961 falling debris killed a cow in Cuba.

In other words, what goes up usually comes down. But before building a bomb shelter, it’s instructive to consider the chances that a dead satellite or an expended rocket will ruin your weekend. Humans and their infrastructure are, frankly, tiny targets. More than two-thirds of the Earth is covered by ocean, and most of the rest is farmland, desert, polar ice, or mountainous terrain. Close your eyes and throw a dart at a globe. The odds that you’ll hit the sprawling city of Los Angeles are 400 thousand to one.

But the number of darts is growing. There are currently more than six thousand satellites orbiting Earth. Sure, half of them are dead, but that distinction will be of little consolation if one punches through your roof. With so many objects above our heads, the rain of debris will continue.

However, there are cures for this growing threat, and they’re hardly rocket science. Well, in fact they are rocket science. Imagine fitting every large satellite with an auxiliary thruster. When the satellite reaches its use-by date, the thruster fires and kicks the defunct satellite upstairs, to a roomier graveyard orbit where the atmosphere is far thinner. It could safely hang out there for millions of years, out of sight, out of mind, and out of the way.

Of course, installing this kind of system in everything that rolls onto a launch pad costs money – both the direct expense of the necessary technology as well as the opportunity cost of sacrificing additional payload. But countries might agree to do this, considering it a tax for the common good.

Other proposed ideas don’t depend on expired hardware taking itself off the field. For example, the space industry could build a fleet of specialized satellites fitted with giant nets or harpoons to collect debris. Alternatively they could use high-powered lasers to alter the orbits of unwanted hardware or blast it into pieces small enough to burn up completely on their way down.

Since powerful lasers would be useful to the military, it’s reasonable to expect that devices able to decimate something the size of a Volkswagen Beetle 300 miles up could be a reality within a few decades. Think of the employment opportunities for those raised on shoot-em-up video games.

In any case, doing nothing about space junk won’t be an option much longer. That’s because of a destructive chain reaction described by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in the late 1970s. As the density of space junk increases, the chance of collision also increases. And collisions produce more debris, which leads to yet more collisions. The resulting cascade of impacts will quickly turn a dense region of space into a belt of pulverized metal and plastic, an abrasive gauntlet that would destroy any rocket trying to get through. The space age would end. This so-called Kessler syndrome is a compelling reason to keep space tidy.

Clearly, there are many ways to prevent space age hardware from raining down on us or blocking our way to the Moon and planets. But as the Long March booster demonstrates, we’re still kicking this can down the road. Until we acknowledge that the orbital spaces that surround Earth are a limited resource, you can say that Ms Little’s paranoia is justified.

 

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